Friday, 14 March 2014

Statistics: their falsehoods, assumptions and dangers.


We have been trapped for four days by the gales and storm force winds at the Island of Jabal Zuqar.

 

The two anchors laid in tandem have been doing a wonderful job and have held us firm, via the special harness which is attached to the bow of the two hulls and onto the anchor chain. The winds have been a persistent forty knots and at times exceeding fifty knots for an hour at a time. The winds howl over the island and scrape the water from the sea and hurl it at the boat. The force of the wind is stronger than standing on the back of a motorcycle doing the speed limit on a National Road in Europe. So there is no question of being able to walk on the deck of the boat!

 

Salt spray has dried all over the rigging along with trapped sand, so the boat is filthy. It looks as though frost has formed, rather like the rime ice that collects on the leading edges of aircraft in icy cloud conditions.

 

Only here it is not icy.

 

It is hot, sometimes with spurts of extra heat from the air that has bashed its way through the black crevasses of this volcanic island. All around the Red Sea the shores are flat and the mountains are in the far distance, almost out of sight in the dust haze. But Jabal Zuqar is different. It is a high black block of basalt spewed from multiple vents and craters, as though God had decided to, for once and for all, block the Red Sea to navigation, but had changed His mind half way through the Creation of it.

 

Now the Island sits in the middle of the Sea like a large black Neptune intent on denying passage to mortals. The ships squeeze past on either side with not a lot of room to spare, while we dangle on the anchor at the mercy of the elements. Perhaps our anchors have embedded themselves into a particularly sensitive area of his torso?

 

All of which brings me to the subject of statistics.

 

We all know the old joke that 97.6% of all Statistics are made up “on the spot”, or at the “drop of a hat”.

 

What is not a joke is that Statistics are used to misinform, hide and distort the truth. Politicians and Police, Law makers and Gamblers all use Statistics to manipulate people with so called logic.

 

And so does that august tome “The Admiralty Sailing Directions”.

 

Who would dare argue with the opinions expressed in a book with such an important title?

 

Well I would!

 

The BSD emphatically shows that winds from the South East in the southern part of the Red Sea blow about 50% of the time, and they blow from the North West about 25 % of the time and from various other parts of the compass for the remainder, at this time of the year. What is more, SE winds in excess of thirty knots blow less than 3% of the time, which is about one day each month.

 

So how can we believe them when we have been subjected to SE winds in excess of forty knots and up to fifty five knots, for nearly five days?

 

We have had six months of gales in less than a week!

 

No wonder our senses of humour are stretched to the limit!

 

Not even watching American TV “soaps” can alleviate our feelings….. Yes, I did say that this boat has many “mod cons”!

 

The only interesting thing that happened is that happened is that a small, seaworthy fishing skiff came into sight and approached us from around the side of the island. It came close to us and we saw a crew of three fishermen and five Yemeni Army men, three Officers and two armed soldiers. They asked who we were and we explained about the weather, which they understood. I gave them a crew list which has an explanation written in very polite Arabic that we “hope we are welcome to stay here for a few days for weather reasons. We are pleased to make their acquaintance and we thank them for their understanding”.

 

It seems that they were the “strandlopers” that we saw when we first arrived. They did not have a boat at their disposal, so they had had to go to the other side of the island and commandeer a fishing boat to come and interview us. The fishermen handled their seaworthy craft in a very expert fashion. After the meeting they were “landed” on the shore and the fishing boat motored off back from whence it came.

 

But a respite came on the night of the fifth day.

 

The wind dropped to 20 to 25 knots, so we hauled up the anchors and set off into the night. The Yemen Army on the shore tried to see if we were still there, with searchlights, but to no avail. We were “gone”.

 

We had a very trying night with a return of strong winds from the south, but we punched our way through it and eventually got to the Bab el Mandeb which is the anal passage that serves as the southern straits of the Red Sea. Tony steered us past prohibited areas which squeezed us against the shipping lanes which were crowded with ships from the convoy system that is used to minimise piracy risks.

 

At last we are in the Gulf of Aden on the way to Aden to refuel and reequip for the next leg of our voyage.

 

We are all happy to be out of the Red Sea at last…. An experience, but not one that I would look forward to doing again!

 

The sadness that exists in Aden is something that I shall write about next time.

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